Economists say we must act now on AI
Statement reflects major update for field where gradualist predictions have dominated
The top AI story in major media this morning was a short statement signed by nearly 200 economists, researchers, and tech leaders warning that We Must Act Now to “understand the economics of transformative AI” and build the capacity to steer it in a direction that will be good for society.
Signatories include the chief economists of OpenAI and Anthropic, and 15 Nobel laureates.
The statement says AI could be more transformative than the Industrial Revolution, but “unfolding over a vastly shorter time frame.”
If you squint, you might convince yourself that the risk of human extinction is somewhere in the statement. But this requires assuming that the word “risks” in the line, “It could bring risks, including large-scale job displacement, as well as opportunities such as major gains in living standards,” is doing a lot of work.
Still, for the field of economics as a whole, this is a pretty big update, and to its credit. Economists have historically preferred to view AI as a normal technology that will take decades to diffuse and will manifest as modest-but-steady growth in productivity and GDP.
Cracks in that gradualist consensus have been visible for a while, though, with more leading lights daring to ask, “What if this time is different?” Two of the statement’s top signatories, Daron Acemoglu and David Autor, were on a podcast with comedian Jon Stewart in April that I thought was pretty insightful, insofar as you believe the economic impacts of AI are the principal shock we need to worry about.
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